تحلیل تاثیر اندازه دولت بر توسعه‌ی انسانی در کشورهای OIC (رهیافت رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی(GWR))

نویسندگان

چکیده

  چکیده   دخالت دولت در اقتصاد از دیرباز یکی از موضوعات مورد بحث بسیاری از اقتصاددانان بوده است. در رابطه با اندازه‌ی دولت و تأثیر آن بر رشد و توسعه‌ی اقتصادی، نظریات گوناگونی وجود دارد. یک نظریه بیانگر این است که دولت بزرگ‌تر برای دستیابی به اهدافی چون کارآیی و رشد اقتصادی زیان ­ آور است. در نقطه‌ی مقابل این نظریه برخی عقیده دارندکه دولت نقش مهمی در فرایند توسعه‌ی اقتصادی به عهده دارد و دولت بزرگ­تر را به موتور توسعه‌ی قوی‌تر برای اقتصاد تشبیه می‌کنند. در هر صورت اندازه‌ی بزرگ دولت یکی از مهم‌ترین ویژگی‌های کشورهای در حال توسعه و کمتر توسعه‌یافته می‌باشد، به‌طوری‌که اغلب بخش‌های اقتصاد در این‌گونه کشورها از جانب دولت مدیریت و تأمین مالی شده، و دولت‌ها در این‌گونه کشورها با کسری شدید بودجه مواجه هستند. بنابراین، عمده‌ی تغییرات در این دسته از کشورها، تحت تأثیر اندازه‌ی دولت آنها قرار می‌گیرد، و همین امر سبب شده که تلاش‌های زیادی در جهت بررسی تأثیر اندازه‌ی دولت بر متغیرهای مختلف اقتصادی انجام شود. از این‌رو هدف این مطالعه، تحلیل تأثیر اندازه‌ی دولت بر شاخص توسعه‌ی انسانی است؛ تفاوت و نوآوری این مطالعه با سایر مطالعات، در روش تحلیل بکار گرفته شده است؛ بطوری که تا بحال این موضوع از طریق روش رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی (GWR) مورد بررسی قرار نگرفته است، این روش دارای قابلیت‌های ویژه‌ای است که در مقاله به آن پرداخته شده است. کشورهای عضو سازمان کنفرانس اسلامی به عنوان کشورهایی که بیشتر از مجموعه‌ی کشورهای در حال توسعه و کشورهای کمتر توسعه‌یافته تشکیل شده‌اند، به عنوان جامعه‌ی آماری مورد بررسی انتخاب شده است. نتایج برآورد مدل نشان می‌دهد که استفاده از روش‌های معمول اقتصادسنجی برای این نوع داده‌ها که مکانمند هستند فاقد اعتبار بوده و الزاما باید از روش‌های اقتصادسنجی فضایی بهره گرفت که روش وزنی جغرافیایی کاملا منطبق بر داده‌های مورد استفاده است. نتایج حاصل از روش وزنی جغرافیایی نشان‌دهنده تاثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار اندازه دولت بر توسعه انسانی در کشورهای مورد مطالعه است.   

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Analysis of the Effect of Government Size on HDI in OIC Countries: (GWR Approach)

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Moghimi
  • S. H. Moazenjamshidi
  • N. A. Akbari
چکیده [English]

  The Analysis of the Effect of Government Size on HDI in OIC Countries:   (GWR Approach)     S. H. Moazenjamshidi   Ph.D. Student in Economic Sciences, University of Isfahan, Iran   M. Moghimi   M.A. Student in Development and Planning, University of Isfahan, Iran   N. A. Akbari *   Associate Professor in Economic Development, University of Isfahan, Iran   Extended abstracts  1- Introduction   The role of government in the economy has always been a matter of argument between the economists. There are many different theories about the government size and its effect on economic growth and development. While some of these theories believe in negative effects of larger governments on economic efficiency and growth, others assume that government plays a significant role in economic development in away that a larger government is like an engine for more powerful economic development. Large government size however, is one of the most important features of less-developed (LDCs) and developing countries around the world, so that in such countries different economic sectors are directly administrated and financed through government budgets and governments of such countries usually have large budget deficits.     2- Theoretical bases   Regarding different economic schools viewpoint we can understand the complementary role government and market play in an economy.As long as government activities are limited to providing and protecting individual rights, protecting people and their properties and enforcing voluntary contracts between individuals, market mechanisms will dominate the economy and all rents will distribute through competing forces.On the other hand the possibility of existing economic rent will encourage the economic growth. If government activities go far from these limitations, however, the rents would not distribute. Considering this view, we can define two major roles for governments:   a) Supportive government: Provides rules and laws in a way that different people with different interests are protected against each other and against the government.   b) Productive government: In this kind of government transferring productive activities from private sector to public sector increases the possibility of externality related costs and reduces decision making costs,in return.     3- Discussion   Economic development, or rather the lack of economic development, is a serious problem in many countries throughout the world. This has led to various economic and social conflicts in most of them. In away that developing countries are known to have features such as: law levels of income, inadequate housing, poor health, limited or no education, high infant mortality, low life and work expectancy, low or poor economic reliability, low private investment, high inflation rates, high rates of unemployment, low economic productivity, inappropriate transportation and unequal distribution of income.Economic development differs from economic growth. Economic development is the continuous increase in society's overall level of welfare over time, whereas economic growth is the continuous increase in the economy's ability to produce goods and services over time. Development entails a modern infrastructure (both physical and institutional), and a move away from low value added sectors such as agriculture and natural resource extraction. As we can understand from their characteristics, developing countries lack these infrastructural requirements. All these has caused a major gap between these countries and developed ones. To remove this gap the only thing to do is to build and generate these infrastructures and to build them high capital accumulation and national will power is needed. Doing this, however, is almost impossible for the private sector. Most of these projects need high amounts of capital and are mostly long term projects with rather social than financial returns. Here we can understand the necessity of government intervention as the only factor which can remove this gap through a big push.   So if we use the government share of GDP (G/GDP) as a measure for government size and HDI as a measure for economic development, we expect that governments through their expenditures which are aimed to affect HDI indices can improve the level of developmentin their countries.     4- Conclusion   The results of the model disqualify the regular econometric techniques for this kind of data with locational aspects. Therefore, it's necessary to apply spatial econometric methods one of which is geographical weighted technique. This method is completely consistent with the data. The results of both classic and GWR model show the significant and positive effect of the per capita government size on human development in the case countries.     5- Suggestions   - Regarding the positive and significant effect of government size on HDI, governments and policymakers can improve the countries social and economic development status by directing their expenditures to affect HDI indices.   - It is a good idea to investigate the effect of government expenditures on different HDI indices separately.   Keywords: Government size, Human development, Geographical weighted regression (GWR), OIC countries, spatial econometrics.  

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: Government size
  • Human development
  • Geographical weighted regression (GWR)
  • OIC countries
  • Spatial Econometrics