تخمین تابع تقاضای سفر شهر بندر ترکمن

نویسندگان

چکیده

  گردشگری یکی از صنایع پر سودی است که بسیاری از کشورهای جهان در آن سرمایه‌گذاری کرده‌اند. این صنعت بسیار کاربر و یکی از کاراترین صنایع برای افزایش اشتغال است. گردشگری فراتر از یک فعالیت صنعتی و اقتصادی است. اما آنچه اثرات این صنعت را می‌تواند تحت شعاع قرار دهد نبود امکانات زیر بنایی در مسیر تامین رفاه گردشگران از جمله محل‌های اقامتی مناسب است. بندر ترکمن به عنوان یک منطقه برخوردار از جاذبه‌های گردشگری با کمبود محل‌های اقامتی مناسب برای گردشگران مواجه است. لذا این پژوهش با برآورد تقاضای سفر به بندر ترکمن در صدد طرح اهمیت اولویت دادن به چنین معضلی است. لذا این تابع تقاضا با استفاده از روش هزینه سفر مورد برآورد قرار گرفت. نتایج حاکی از آن است که اگر هزینه سفر به این منطقه صفر باشد، حداکثر 12 در میلیون نفر درخواست مسافرت به آن را دارند، اما به ازای هر 1000 ریال افزایش هزینه سفر از این نرخ به اندازه 02- e 1.05527220477 کاسته خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of yourney Demand for Bandar-E-Tourkman Journey

نویسندگان [English]

  • K. Nasrollahi
  • A. Onegh
چکیده [English]

  Estimation of yourney Demand for Bandar-E-Tourkman Journey     K. Nasrollahi. Assistant Professor of International Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran   e-mail: msamkzsm@yahoo.com   A. Onegh, M.A student of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran   Received: 3 August 2010 / Accepted: 16 April 2011, 23-26 P       Extended abstract   1- Intro duction   Tourism plays a growing role in developing countries and is accounted as a way of government deficit reduction, gaining foreign exchange and employment increment. In addition it is viewed as a channel of getting away from single product economies. In fact, an industry with multi dimension impacts is looked. Really, tourism is one of the most profitable activities such that many countries have invested on it. This industry is labor intensive and is one of the employment generation effective ways. Tourism is beyond an economic and industrial activity but what may surcharge its influence is the lack of fundamental possibilities providing tourists welfare in clouding scarce of suitable staying places.   Bandar Turkman as an attractive site for tourists is faced with scarce suit staying palaces.     Thus this study intended to estimate travel demand function of this city to assign the importance of paying attention to this matter. Therefore the demand function was estimated by travel cost method.     2- Theoretical Bases   The basic premise of the travel cost method is that the time and travel cost expenses that people incur to visit a site represent the “price” of access to the site. Thus, peoples’ willingness to pay to visit the site can be estimated based on the number of trips that they make at different travel costs. This is analogous to estimating peoples’ willingness to pay for a marketed good based on the quantity demanded at different prices.     2-1- Options for Applying the Travel Cost Method :   There are several ways to approach the problem, using variations of the travel cost method. These include:   - A simple zonal travel cost approach, using mostly secondary data, with some simple data collected from visitors.   - An individual travel cost approach, using a more detailed survey of visitors.   - A random utility approach using survey and other data, and more complicated statistical techniques.     3- Discussion   By arranging data in the regional format in the EXEL enviorment, the relation between journey demand and travel cost, mean age, mean education, and mean income level veriables were estimated. The results said that although the coefficients are in line with their theoretical bases but are not statistically significant. Then once again the relation was emtimated omitting meaningless veriables, the products result was as the following equation:   VN1=12.0990618474-1.05527220477e-05*TCI   The consumer surplus of such traveling is aproximatly 6879208 rials     4- Conclusion   Results show that if travel cost to this site is zero, maximum demand for visiting is twoelve per one mellion of population. Per 1000 rails travel cost increment would reduce this rate by 1/0553e-2.     5- Suggestions   Due to this matter that the people can gain relatively high surplus welfare by traveling to Bandar Turkman, it is recommended to those involved in the affairs of this field, to provide appropriate measures and suitable residential sites for the passengers coming.   In this survey, beside age variables scrutiny such as literacy and income level as social indices which have determining role in the chosen destination, have shown that these kinds of variables have less dividend in the direction impacts on using or not using this place as promenade.   Individual income is one important factor in promenades economic appraisal and the impact of such a factor on journey demand. Most of Talabe Gomishan visitors are set in the 400-600 thousand toman income range and with income mean increment, the number of visitors have been reduced. It’s necessary to mention that although wealthies have financial strength but they may not have enough time for recreation or May chose other palaces for this intention.   For providing merrymaking possibilities and visitors needs, aging classification recognition is also is another important factor which in the direction of social survey of promenade place is searched. Scrutiny of results of aging groups has shown that most people responding questionnaire lie in the range of 25 to 29 year-old. It means that most tourists are young. This matter can help programmer for such environment provision which is suitable for young people.   Key words: Tourism, Revealed Preference, Travel Cost Method (TCM), Bandar turkman     References     Bardgett, L. (2005). "The Tourism Industry", the Economic Geography of the Tourist Industry, Edited by: Ioannides Dimitri and Debbage Keith G., Taylor & Francis e-Library.   Chattopadhyay K. (2000). 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کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Tourism
  • Revealed Preference
  • Travel Cost Method (TCM)
  • Bandar Turkman