ارزیابی تحقق‌پذیری پیش‌بینی‌های کاربری اراضی و پیشنهادهای جهات توسعه در طرح جامع شهر لار

نویسندگان

شهرساز

چکیده

  طرح­های جامع، در واقع طرح­های توسعه شهری به شمار می­روند که به منظور ایجاد زمینه توسعه کالبدی موزون و هماهنگ شهرها تهیه شده­اند. هرچند این طرح­ها با مقدمات فنی و تخصصی و نیز صرف هزینه­های زیادی تهیه گردیده­اند و البته تاثیرات مثبتی در منطقه­بندی کاربری­ها، رعایت ضوابط و مقررات ساختمان و بهبود نسبی حیات شهرها داشته­اند، اما به دلایل متعددی نتوانسته­اند به تمام اهداف خود برسند. پرداختن به مبحث ارزیابی طرح جامع، به عنوان ابزاری مهم در راستای سنجش موفقیت و تحقق پذیری پیشنهادهای طرح جامع به­ شمار می­رود و به برنامه­ریزان شهری کمک خواهد نمود بهتر با مشکلات تهیه و تدوین طرح­های جامعی که قبلاً تهیه شده­اند، آشنا شوند. هدف این مقاله ارزیابی تحقق­پذیری پیشنهادهای اصلی و تأثیرگذار در طرح جامع شهر لار است. روش تحقیق به کار رفته در این پژوهش، بر پایه روش ارزیابی کمّی است. یافته­های این تحقیق نشان می­دهد که اغلب پیش­بینی­های سطوح و سرانه کاربری­ها در این طرح، با توجه به پیش­بینی­ افق جمعیتی شهر، نادرست بوده و علی­رغم این که اکنون چندین سال از پایان دوره اجرایی طرح جامع گذشته است، هنوز تعدادی از سرانه­های پیشنهادی کاربری محقق نشده است. در عین حال، بر اساس ارزیابی­ صورت گرفته از طریق منطق فازی، جهات پیشنهادی توسعه شهر در این طرح، در جهاتی مناسب تشخیص داده شده است که با پیشنهادهای جهات توسعه در طرح جامع سازگار نیست. مطالعات وضع موجود شهر لار نشان می­دهد جهات توسعه فعلی شهر لار، سازگار با نتایج تحلیل منطق فازی و مغایر با پیشنهادهای طرح جامع است؛ به طوری که بر خلاف پیشنهاد طرح جامع که ناحیه جنوب غربی را مناسب­ترین جهت توسعه در نظر گرفته است، روند توسعه در وضع موجود، به سمت ناحیه مرکزی شهر و فاصله فضائی مابین شهرقدیم و شهرجدید لار گرایش پیدا کرده است.  

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Forecasting Implementations and Development Directions in Master Plan of Lar City

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. M. Azizi
  • M. M. Azizi
  • M. Arasteh
چکیده [English]

  Evaluation of Forecasting Implementations and Development Directions in Master Plan of Lar City        M. M. Azizi    Received: 7 February 2011 / Accepted: 13 August 2011, 1-4 P       Extended abstracts   1-Introduction   Evaluation of master plan can be an important tool in measuring the success of implementation of master plans. Evaluation process can help urban planners to be familiar with the problems of comprehensive plans. The purpose of this article is to evaluate of main suggestions proposed in master plan of Lar city, located in southern Iran. The research method used in this study is a combination of qualitative evaluation methods and Fuzzy logic (based on Michael O'Hagen methodology).     2- Theoretical bases   Evaluation, scientificly speaking, is new knowledge especially in Iran, particularly in urban and regional planning that, does not exceed 40 years. From a scientific perspective, evaluation is a systematic process for collecting, analyzing and interpreting data.   In fact, evaluation is a method to show whether the objectives and goals of the project have been realized, or are being realized? And, to what extent the goals have been achieved so far?   Qualitative and quantitative evaluations, especially in urban studies, have important roles. For example, it can be used for both qualitative and quantitativeevaluation in the process of land use planning. In quantitative evaluation, Optimal Allocation of Lands to the standards and per capita in urban areas is often considered. In qualitative evaluation, some different components are considered such as social benefits balance planning, Reliance, adaptability, utility and capacity of land uses.     3– Discussion   Findings of the study show significant differences between the predicted population in year 2001 and the status quo of the city of Lar (opposite to the comprehensive plan predictions) in 2006. In spite of increasing population in many other cities of Iran, the process of population growth in Lar city has been faced with decreasing steps so that it was 0.06% in 2006. On the other hand, whereas comprehensive plan had forecasted that the population of this city will reach nearly to 60000 people in 2001, the population of this city in 1385 doesn’t still have reached to predicted population in 2001 (The current population of the city of Lar is 55000 people). On this incorrect prediction, many of land uses and proposed transport network are not compatible with the proposed status.   At the same time, while the master plan of Lar city has suggested the direction of development in western lands, the status quo shows most of the development direction is devoted to the areas the old and new cities (central district).     4– Conclusion   The findings of this study shows that most forecasts and per capita of land use in this plan were incorrect according to forecast of the population of the city and despite passing several years from the execution of the master plan, yet some proposed per capita of land use has not been achieved. Moreover, the proposed development directions of the city in this plan are not compatible with the status quo. Overall, it can be claimed that the master plan of Lar city was not successful in predicting the per capita of land use and proposed development directions.       5– Suggestions   5-1- In the process of master plan preparation, especially in cities with a vast sphere of influence and impact such as the city of Lar, paying attention to the regional studies, regional population movements, social and cultural conditions of the inhabitants of the town is essential.   5-2- Establishing a local office of consulting engineers to amend the master plan process with emphasis on Participatory Planning is necessary.   5-3- In the next steps, land use per capita can be evaluated in GIS software.   5-4- (CDS), which is used in many cities all over the world can be used in Lar, as a different approach from the previous plans.       Refrences   Aryanpoor Kashani, A. (1990), Great Dictionary of Aryanpoor, Amirkabir Press, Tehran.   Consulting Engineers of Zista. (1993), evaluation of master plans in Iran (Case study: Maraghe, Arak, Yazd, Bandar abbas, Shiraz, Zahedan, Rasht), Organization of planning and budget, Tehran   Cowan, R. (2005), The Dictionary of Urbanism, Streetwise Press, and Wiltshire.   Ebrahimzade, E. and Mojirardakani, A. (2006), Evaluation of land use in Ardakan (Fars Province), Journal of Geography & Development, No.7, pp.43-68.   Ebrahimzade, E. and Rafiee, G. (2009), Locating of development directions with GIS, Journal of Geography & Development, No.15, pp.45-70.   Ghodrati, M. (2002), Evaluation of Shirvan master plan with emphasis on physical-spatial dimensions, supervisor: Dr Simin Tavallaee, Master thesis of geography and urban planning, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran.   Habibi, S.M. (2004), From Shaar to City, Tehran University Press, Tehran.   http://www.smartgrowth.org/about/ principles   Lynch, K. (2002), A Theory of Good City Form , translated by Dr Hosein Bahreini, University of Tehran Press, Tehran.   Master plan of Lar city. (1991), Consulting Engineers of Tarh-o-Tadvin, organization of housing and urbanism in Fars province.   O' Hagen, M. (1993), "A Fuzzy Decision Maker", Fuzzy_ Logic '93 Conference Proceedings, Computer Design Magazine.   Pendse , S.H. (1991), ” Perspective on an Economic Future”, Green wood press published.G.B.   Rahnamaee, M. (2003), Category of urbanism topics and methods, center of studies and researches in urbanism and architecture of Iran, Tehran.   Rezaee, R. (2003), evaluation of master plan of Marand, Master thesis of geography and urban planning, supervisor: Dr Mozafar Sarrafi, Shahid Beheshti University.   Saaty, T.L. (1980), the Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1980.   Sadeghi, S. (2001), locating of land use with emphasis on Transport planning inside the city, supervisor: Dr Shi’ee, Esmaeel, Elm-O-Sanat University, Tehran.   Seif, A. (2003), Methodologies measurement and education assessment, Doran Press, Tehran.   Shi’ee, E. (1996), Introduction to principle of urban planning, Elm-O-Sanat University press, Tehran.   Smart Growth Network. (2010), Smart Growth Principles.   Tale’ee, Mohamad Mesgari, Mohamadsadi Sharifi, A. (2009), Developing a Spatial Micro-Level Algorithm for Evaluating Accessibility to Urban Services, Journal of engineering faculty of University of Tehran, Vol. 43,No.4,pp441-454.   www.GoogleMaps.com   Zebardast, E. (2001), Application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in urban and regional planning, Honar-Ha-Ye-Ziba, No. 10, pp.13-21.   Zebardast, E. (2009), Course notes of urban planning workshop (2), course of master of urban planning course in Tehran university, Faculty of Fine Arts (not published).   Ziari, K. (2002), Planning of land use, Yazd University Press, Yazd.   Ziari, K., Mahdnejad, H., and Parhiz, F. (2009), Principles and methods in urban planning, International University of Chabahar, Chabahar.         Professor of Urban Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran     M.Arasteh ( * )   M.A. Student of Urban Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran   e-mail: MojtabaArasteh@yahoo.com

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Evaluation
  • Master Plan
  • Lar City
  • Suggestion of Land Use
  • Predict of Development Direction