بررسی و تحلیل ابعاد پیوندهای جمعیتی در استان آذربایجان غربی

  Analysis of social linkages in population movement and its underlying factors over the past decades in West Azarbaijan Province, Iran     N. Zali,   Assistant Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Gilan, Rasht, Iran   e-mail: nzali@guilan.ac.ir   N. Azimi,   Assistant Professor of Geography and development, University of Gilan, Rasht, Iran   Received: 15 September 2010 / Accepted: 14 May 2011, 15-18 P     Extended abstract   1- Intro duction   Internal migration between regions is an important social process in many countries which reflects the reaction of people against the economic, social and regional inequalities in many aspects of the life. Intense migration started approximately 300 years ago in European societies however, in developing countries it has been begun since 1960( Lucas, 1381 : 156-163 ). The d ominant form of migrations in developing nations in past years has mainly been rural -urban which has led to the rapid expansion of cities. The outcome has mainly been problems such as deprived rural areas , over crowded cities , poor social services , increasing crimes , low quality of environment , lack of sanitation and shortage of safe drinking water , ( Sheikhi, 1380 ,107 ).     As one of the important social issues in Iran, migration and its consequences have posed serious challenges for administrative managers during the recent decades.   The main objective of this study is to investigate the characteristics of migration in West Azarbaijan Province (WAP) of Iran. The research method is mainly descriptive and several statistical measures have been used to analyze the data. Most data employed in the study comes from official records. In addition to the analysis of net migration over the last three decades, the major population links of the WAP with other provinces as well as the underlying factors of urban and rural migrations have been discussed.     2- Theoretical Bases   Based on the last two censuses, there has been a strong tendency for internal migrations in Iran at national scale. Between 1986 and 1996, about 8.7 million was displaced from which 8.4 million was internal and 238 thousands external migration. From 8.4 million internal migrations, 2.94 million was inter-provincial and 5.49 million intra-provincial migrations. Between 1986 and 1996, six out of 26 provinces including Tehran, Isfahan, Khozestan, Qom, Semnan and Yazd have gained, but the remaining provinces have lost their population. According to 1996-2006 census, 12.1 million was displaced from which 11.78 million was internal and 260 thousands external migration. From 11.78 million internal migration 4.7 million (40.5 percent) was inter-provincial and 7 million (59.5 percent) was intra-provincial migration. During the last two decades, most of the population displacement in Iran was inter urban. Over the last two decades, while the number of inter urban migration (particularly from small cities to large cities) in Iran has considerably been increased, the volume of inter rural and rural-urban migration has been declined.     3- Discussion   Results of the general censuses indicate that during 1976 -2006, WAP has faced negative migration balance of over 42 thousands (Table1).     Table 1 Volume of in and out migration between WAP and other provinces during 1976-2006   Census   In migration   Out migration   Net migration   Status   1976-1986   30881   44695   (-13814)   Migrant-Sender   1986-1996   94861   96258   (-1397)   Migrant-Sender   1996-2006   121620   148441   (-26821)   Migrant-Sender     Analysis of in and out migration in WAP indicates a strong regional tendency in terms of volume of population displacement. As Table 1 shows, during 1996-2006 a total of 121 thousands migrants moved into WAP, but in reverse, 148 thousands moved out of the province. The main provinces contributing to the in migration of WAP are East Azarbaijan, Tehran, Kordestan, Kermanshah, Ardebil and Qazvin which accounts for 76 percent of the total in migration of WAP (Fig. 1). Similarly, East Azarbaijan, Tehran, Kordestan, Zanjan, Ardebil and Guilan provinces are the main provinces which have attracted most of the out migrating from WAP (74 percent).    3-1- Intra provincial migration in WAP and its underlying factors   According to the last general census, WAP has witnessed 447 thousands intra provincial migration during the 1996 and 2006 period. From 14 Shahrtestans [1] Urmieh Shahrestan alone contributes to one third of total intra-provincial migration. Khoy and Bookan with 10.8 and 8.1 percent respectively are second and third important Shahrestans in intra-provincial migration in WAP. These three Shahrestans accounts for 51.6 percent of the total intra-provincial migration in the province. On the other side, Tekub, Oshnavieh and Chaldran Shahrestans together with 4.2 percent have the lowest share of intra-provincial migration in WAP.    Fig 1 Causes pf intra- Provincial migration in WAP in Percentage (1997- 2006)       Based on the last general census, most of the intra-provincial migrations in WAP have been family oriented (44.7 percent). Job, military service and studying with 16.9 percent, 16 percent and 9.1 percent are the other major casual factors in intra-provincial migrations in WAP.   One of the main reasons associated with social links is distance factor. People usually tend to minimize their migration distance from the destination point. To explain the regional characteristics of inter-provincial migration in WAP, distance factor was examined in this study. Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was used (Table 2).   Table 2: Pearson correlation coefficient index for distance and migration relation   Variable   index/sig   Out migration   In migration   distance   Out migration   Pearson Correlation   1   .955**   -.453*   Sig. (2-tailed)     0   0.014   In migration   Pearson Correlation   .955**   1   -.463*   Sig. (2-tailed)   0     0.011   Distance between two points   Pearson Correlation   -.453*   -.463*   1   Sig. (2-tailed)   0.014   0.011       As Table 2 indicates, the correlation coefficient between distance and number of out migration and in migration at 95 percent level of confidence is significant. The main point to mention is that also a significant correlation at 99 percent level of confidence exists between the distance and in migration relation in WAP. Further analysis by Univariate and multivariate regression also proved significant correlation between distance and inter-provincial migration for WAP.     4- Conclusion   This study attempted to analyze the characteristics of inter-provincial and intra-provincial migration in WAP of Iran. The result of the study indicates that the inter-provincial migration in WAP is dominated mainly by neighboring provinces which proves the regional characteristics of population movement. The first three provinces including East Azarbaijan, Tehran and Kordestan account for the two third of the inter provincial migration and the first six provinces account for three quarters of the total inter-provincial migration for WAP.   The nature of urban and rural migrations in the province is significantly different from each other and most of the in-migration to the province is mainly family oriented. 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