بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر فقر خانوارهای شهری استان خراسان شمالی با استفاده از الگوی توبیت

Extended abstract
1-Introduction
Analysis of poverty determinants in order to study welfare by household traits is effort to study how a particular variable would affect on poverty situation, ceteris paribus. Poverty is a social phenomenon with which human society has been inflicted in all eras and is well known as a universal phenomenon causing the poor not to have a correct perception from their abilities and capacities. The resultant empirical model of the determinants of poverty provides insights as to how a particular household characteristic affects its poverty status conditional on the level of other household characteristics that are also potential determinants of poverty.
On the other hand, different provinces are different by total governing economical conditions so compiling programs of combating with poverty requires close recognition of detail properties of poor groups and taking poverty eradication policies along with regional or provincial directions. Among provinces of Iran, northern Khorasan having 863 villages is one of provinces its rural population has been more than urban one in recent years based on censuses of Iran bureaus of census however based on comparative report of Iran provinces in 2010 issued in Mars 2012 by census and data office, 400,000 from 839,000 of its total population reside in rural and non-residential areas indicating emigration growth of villagers to urban areas. So, recognizing poverty correctly, its aspects and identifying its determinants in this province can be a good guide for compiling poverty programs and using resources optimally throughout the province. With this purpose in mind, this research aims at studying the properties of household which are identified as important and effective factors in household welfare and poverty situation. The results of the study can be used by policymakers in order to promote society welfare.
2-Theoretical bases
Sen (1981) considers poverty as deprivation from basic capabilities rather than only low income. It is of note that privation is a relative concept having different definitions in different times and places. Atkinson (1989) considers two concepts for poverty. In the first concept, poverty means lack of availability of certain subsistence facilities according to which if total expenditure of consuming particular goods by a person is lower than a particular limit, he is considered poor. The second one is the right of having socio-economic facilities and if one’s income is lower than a known level, they aren’t available for him.

3-Discussion
In this research poverty determinants in urban areas of Northern Khorasan province were studied. First absolute poverty line was estimated based on cost data of 162 goods extracted from data of 717 families of sample of cost and income of urban families plan in 2010. The effect of variables of support load, sex and age of family supporter, educational and sanitary costs of family were studied using estimated poverty line and Tobit model in order to study poverty determinants in detail. Having calculated poverty line, effective factors on poverty line have been studied by using Tobit model. Dependent variable, household income (expenditure), is zero for household being under poverty line and more than zero for those above of poverty line. Regression equation of this model is:
Where variables are following:
POV: poverty line , DEP: pure dependency ratio. GEN: gender of guardian , AGE: age of household guardian , EDU: household educational expenses , HEL: household health expenses , HAP: the place in which household reside which is one for rural and two for urban.
Tobit model has been used to study the effect of respective variables on absolute poverty line. Using of Tobit model is the most important differences of this study from other studies in Iran. Tobit model was developed by Tobin in 1958 and has been used widely by economists for measuring the effect of changing explanatory variable on poverty (McDonald and Moffitt, 1980).
Considering annual poverty line for a typical household in the urban in 2010 was calculated 14491151 Rial, so 559 household of total sample household are under poverty line. As seen, 24% of population urban area of Northern Khorasan is considered poor. The value of statistic LR is -10874.418 ruling out null hypothesis that all variable coefficients studied are zero. Indeed it can be said that at least one of explanatory variables has significant effect on probability of poverty creation. Square correlation coefficient (r2) is 0.404 indicating good performance of model.

4-Conclusion
To find development obstacles, in this research absolute poverty line has been estimated based on calorie need in 2010 to provide a required ground for poverty eradication in the urban area in province of Northern Khorasan. To study in detail the factors affecting on poverty, poverty is defined as a censored dependent variable. If household expenditures are under poverty line (being poor), the value is zero and if household expenditures are above poverty line this variable takes real values of expenditures. To measure poverty determinants, Tobit model has been used.


5-Suggestions
Due to inequality of employment system, women are more vulnerable to unemployment and poverty than men. So poverty affects on female guardians more severely and they experience poverty more than their male counterparts because of limited availability to education, employment and health. training plans on rural jobs such as farming and animal husbandry to increase efficiency and productivity of female guardians of rural household and plans to insurance cover of female guardian should be prioritized of supporting female guardians.
Since pure dependency ratio has direct effect on household poverty and pressure of dependency ratio in the household is sensible and heavy for employed members and guardian, it is suggested that employment system of the country should design a variety of models of dividing household labor considering proficiency and ability level according to Iranian culture as a solution to balance this problem in household and considering that employment is one of big economic subject.
Health expenses are considered an investment affecting on household welfare by increased efficiency and productivity. This reflects the importance of government health support shelter and especially state health insurance covering low income people. Public education has positive effect on income from job by increasing productivity of low income people leading to their improved position in labor market.